产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法参数分析

摘要

为进一步提高洪水预报精度,扩展产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法的应用范围,首先通过理论推导,比较了产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法与产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法的特点,比较结果表明后者具有更强的修正稳定性以及更好的修正效果;然后通过理想案例和实际案例对该方法应用效果和参数选取进行讨论,应用结果显示产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法应用于达开水库流域具有较好的修正效果,明显提高了洪水预报精度;参数分析结果显示存在一个最优的权重系数使得修正效果达到最佳,并且在实际流域上权重系数取值幅度较大.%To further improve the accuracy of flood forecastingand expand the application scope of the error correction method with runoff error smooth matrix based on system response,firstly the DSRC method and RESM method are theoretically deducted in this paper.The result shows that the latter method has stronger correction stability and better correction effect.And then theparameters of the latter method are discussed by the ideal case and practical case in this paper.The results show that the latter method is applicable to Dakai reservoir basin,which significantly improves the accuracy of flood forecasting.The analysis also shows that there is an optimal weight coefficient that makes the correction effect to achieve the best,and the value range of the parameter is larger in actual watersheds than the ideal ones.