南水北调进京后的北京市水资源短缺风险研究

摘要

基于趋势预测和用水定额法对北京市的用水情况进行了预测，采用皮尔逊水文频率曲线模拟了中长期不同降水的经验概率，计算南水北调进京后的水资源短缺量和风险变化。研究表明：南水北调进京后，正常年能够保证北京用水；在枯水年可降低缺水比例60﹪以上，在平水年降低缺水比例40﹪以上，在丰水年缺水比例降低至零，且随时间推移南水北调工程对缺水比例降低的效果增大；南水北调工程实施后北京市2015~2030年水资源短缺风险由70﹪~80﹪降低到26﹪~36﹪，降低了40﹪以上，且随着时间推移，南水北调工程对水资源短缺风险的降低作用将继续增大。%In this paper, water usage of Beijing was forecasted by combining trend forecasting method and water quota method. The empirical frequency under different precipitation was given by the use of the Pearson Hydrology Frequency Curve. The changes of water resources shortage quantity and risk after“South-to-North Water Transfer”Project were calculated. The mainly conclusions are as follows. Water usage of Beijing is guaranteed sufficiently under the normal annual after “South-to-North Water Transfer”Project. In dry years, “South-to-North Water Transfer”Project reduces water shortage over the proportion of 60﹪, in the average year over about 40﹪, in wet years without water shortage. The effect of the project to reduce water shortage is more obvious in dry years and is growing with the time going. Risk of water shortages in Beijing in during 2015-2030 after the implementation of the Project was reduced from 70﹪-80﹪ to 26﹪-36﹪, totally above a 40﹪reduction. The project decreases more and more water shortage risk with time.