According to the water balance analysis, the available total local water resources quantity is 91.04 ×108 m3. The study was made on wa ter consumption, utilization efficiency of water resources and its influence factors. The results show that the cumulative distribution curve of the utilization efficiency of water resources was V-shape from 2000 to 2014 in Chengdu, Sichuan Province and the utilization efficiency reached the lowest in 2009. Urbanization has obvious negative correlation on the utilization efficiency of water resources, while the development of industrialization and economic level can contribute to the utilization efficiency. By the analysis of water consumption structure, it can be concluded that urbanization has little effect on agricultural water consumption, mainly because Chengdu is rich of water resources. It is not obvious to occupy agricultural water consumption with the development of urbanization and industrialization. The water requirements in Chengdu was predicted to be 40.02 ×108 m3 applying BP neutral network, and the total local water resources quantity can meet the requirements in the study area.%根据水量平衡理论,计算出研究区可利用水资源总量为91.04×108m3.对用水量、水资源利用效率及影响因素进行研究.结果表明:成都市2000~2014年水资源利用效率整体呈Ⅴ型分布,2009年水资源利用效率达到最低值.城镇化的发展对水资源利用效率具有明显的负相关性,而工业水平及经济水平的发展能明显提高水资源利用效率.通过对用水结构的分析发现,城镇化的发展对农业用水影响不大,主要由于成都市水资源充沛,城市和工业的发展对农业用水的挤占不明显.采用BP神经网络模型预测2020年成都市需水量为40.02×108m3,研究区水资源总量满足要求.
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