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Forecasting available parking space with largest Lyapunov exponents method

机译:使用最大Lyapunov指数方法预测可用停车位

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The techniques to forecast available parking space (APS) are indispensable components for parking guidance systems (PGS). According to the data collected in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, the changing characteristics of APS were studied. Thereafter, aiming to build up a multi-step APS forecasting model that provides richer information than a conventional one-step model, the largest Lyapunov exponents (largest LEs) method was introduced into PGS. By experimental tests conducted using the same dataset, its prediction performance was compared with traditional wavelet neural network (WNN) method in both one-step and multi-step processes. Based on the results, a new multi-step forecasting model called WNN-LE method was proposed, where WNN, which enjoys a more accurate performance along with a better learning ability in short-term forecasting, was applied in the early forecast steps while the Lyapunov exponent prediction method in the latter steps precisely reflect the chaotic feature in latter forecast period. The MSE of APS forecasting for one hour time period can be reduced from 83.1 to 27.1 (in a parking building with 492 berths) by using largest LEs method instead of WNN and further reduced to 19.0 by conducted the new method.
机译:预测可用停车位(APS)的技术是停车引导系统(PGS)的不可或缺的组件。根据纽卡斯尔在纽卡斯尔,英格兰的数据,研究了APS的变化特性。此后,旨在建立一个多步骤APS预测模型,该模型提供比传统的一步模型更丰富的信息,将最大的Lyapunov指数(最大LES)方法引入PGS。通过使用相同数据集进行的实验测试,将其预测性能与传统小波神经网络(WNN)方法进行比较,在一步和多步骤过程中。基于结果,提出了一种名为WNN-LE方法的新的多步预测模型,其中WNN在短期预测中具有更准确的性能以及更好的学习能力,在早期预测步骤中应用了后一步中的Lyapunov指数预测方法精确地反映了后一段的混沌特征。通过使用最大的LES法而不是Wnn,通过83.1至27.1(在492个泊位的停车场中,在492个泊位的停车场中,通过Wnn进一步减少到19.0,可以将APS预测为一小时时间段的MSE从83.1到27.1减少到19.0。

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