林业产业结构与森林生态安全动态关系研究——以黑龙江省为例

摘要

随着林业经济的增长与资源、环境的矛盾日益突出,优化林业产业结构成为林业建设面临的重点任务,而森林生态安全是林业产业结构优化升级的前提与基础.本研究通过构建林业产业结构与森林生态安全指标体系,运用ECM模型与VAR模型对黑龙江省林业产业结构与森林生态安全进行动态分析,结果表明:黑龙江省林业产业结构与森林生态安全之间具有长期的均衡关系,且在这种长期的均衡关系中,林业产业结构变动会对森林生态安全产生显著的促进作用,但是它们之间不存在短期均衡关系,而且林业三次产业均对森林生态安全产生影响,尤其是第二、三产业对森林生态安全具有正向的促进作用,且相对比第一产业更明显、周期更长.%With the growth of forestry economy and the contradiction between resources and environment,the optimization of forestry industry structure has become the key task of forestry construction,and forest ecological security is the prerequisite and basis for the optimization and upgrading of forestry industry.Based on the construction of forestry industry structure and forest ecological security index system,this paper uses ECM model and VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between forestry industry structure and forest ecological security in Heilongjiang province.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between forestry industry structure and forest ecological security in Heilongjiang province.In this long-term equilibrium relationship,the change of forestry industry structure will have a significant effect on forest ecological security,but there is no short-term equilibrium between them.And three industries of forest have an impact on the forest ecological security,especially the second and third industries have a positive role in promoting forest ecological security.This promotion is more obvious,longer cycle than the first industry.