考虑风险率模式下的洪潮组合设计方法

摘要

Flood(tide) prevention calculation usually considers two aspects of combination of flood and tide,one is the combination of the standard design flood and the average value of annual tide,the other is the combination of the standard design tide and the average value of annual flood. The occurrence probability of different combination of flood and tide are different. When engineering design met design flood conditions, we called the probability of over design tide as risk probability, or on the contrary. Clayton Copula was used to construct the risk analysis model of the combination of flood and tide, and based on the risk,the design method of the combination of flood and tide was established in this paper. The case study of the design method of the combination of flood and tide for Shenzhen was conducted, which can provide scientific basis for the rational selection for the combination of flood and tide.%防洪(潮)计算中,洪潮组合若以洪为主时,一般选取设计标准洪水与多年平均潮位相组合,当以潮为主时,一般选取设计标准的潮位与多年平均洪水相组合.实际上,按不同的设计标准设计潮位时,河道上游可能发生各种频率的洪水,按不同的设计标准设计洪水时,河道下游也可能发生各种频率的潮位,所以,组合多年平均潮位或多年平均洪水存在一定的风险.为此,构建了洪潮组合风险计算模型,并依据洪潮组合风险提出了洪潮组合设计方法.考虑到各地水文特征的差异性,以深圳市为特例对这种方法进行了分析,为洪潮遭遇组合的合理选取提供科学依据.