基于模糊概率的阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境分区

摘要

公路洪灾孕灾环境的合理分区可从理论上为公路洪灾的防治工作提供指导。以四川阿坝州为研究对象，根据公路洪灾致灾原理，遴选出公路沿线历史地质灾害发育、地貌条件、岩土体性质、年均降雨量、人口密度、植被覆盖度和地质构造7个因子，依据专家系统分为4级后赋值构成评价指标体系。综合层次分析法和专家效度法得到各指标的相对权重，并结合模糊理论给出模糊权重。采用模糊概率综合评价模型将公路洪灾孕灾环境分成低易发区、中易发区、高易发区和危险区4个危险等级。分区结果显示：阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境发展较为充分，以县为单位分成了高易发区、中易发区和低易发区，分别占全州面积的38.1％、39.4％和22.5％，研究成果对于该区公路洪灾的防治具有积极意义。%A fit environment zoning of geological hazards developing of road flood can provide theoretical ref-erences for the road flood prevention engineering.The road flood in Aba area,Sichuan province is studied.Ac-cording to the road flood causing principles,seven indexes are selected,such as historical geological hazards along the road,landforms,natures of rock and soil,average annual rainfall,population density,vegetation coverage and geological conditions,which are divided into four grades based on expert system,and then the comprehensive eval-uation model of environment zoning of geological hazards development is established after assessment.Each index is calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)and Expert Scoring Method,and then got the fuzzy weights combined fuzzy theory.According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of probability,the environment zoning of geological hazards development is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area,high easy-happening area and dangerous area.The result shows that Aba area have sufficient environmental conditions for road flood,and it is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area and high easy-happening area ac-cording to the administrative districts,respectively accounts for 38.1%,39.6%,22.9%of the state area,this result has a positive significance for management and operation of the road flood in Aba area.