研究易贡乡扎木弄沟泥石流物源及再次形成滑坡型泥石流堵河溃坝的可能性，对选择川藏铁路跨越易贡藏布的基础工程及附属设施具有重要的意义。首先基于工程地质分析方法和野外实际调查得出了扎木弄沟泥石流的物源总量。其次，通过三维数值模拟估算今后再次发生类似2000年滑坡型泥石流的堆积范围和深度。最后，基于四种工况下滑坡型泥石流的堆积形态和2000年堰塞坝物质组成分析了泥石流堵河及溃坝可能性。通过研究得出了如下结论：扎木弄沟泥石流物源总量为2.37×108 m3；在地震（地震烈度为Ⅷ度）和极端气候工况下，今后再次发生类似2000年的滑坡型泥石流有可能造成堵河；在流域源头崩滑起动方量增大的情况下，堰塞坝溃决的风险逐渐增加。%The study of volume of loose materials and the possibility of blocking and dam break triggered by debris flow mobilization from landslides in Zhamunonggou has important scientific and engineering significance. Firstly,we get the total volume of source of debris flow based on the engineering geology analysis method and field investigation.Secondly,we estimated the deposition range and depth of future debris flow by three dimensional nu-merical simulations.Lastly,we get the possibility of debris flow blocking river and dam break by the analysis of deposition and material composition of the dam in 2000.The following conclusions are obtained through the study:(1)the total volume of loose materials of debris flow is 2.37 ×108m3;(2)under the earthquake (seismic intensity isⅧdegrees)and extreme climate conditions,debris flow mobilization from landslides similar to the 2000 incident are likely to cause blockage;(3 )dam break risk may increase gradually with the starting volume increases.
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