使用截面加权最小二乘法对31个省市自治区面板数据进行研究,发现自然灾害变化率对农业产值增速和农民可支配收入增速具有负面影响(-0.008;-0.001),而且区域间的影响具有较大差异性,自然灾害对东西部农业增长和农民收入增速影响的差异分别是10倍和80倍.这种区域影响的异质性不仅来自于自然环境因素,也来自于区域间的社会环境因素,在无法改变区域间自然环境差异性条件下,设法提高中西部地区,尤其是西部地区社会环境因素,是抵消自然灾害对农业、农民影响的现实举措.%We use sectional weighted least squares to study the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities.It is found that the change rate of natural disasters has a negative impact on the growth rate of agricultural output and the growth rate of farmers' disposable income (-0.008;-O.001).The influence of the region has great difference,and the impact of natural disasters on agricultural growth and farmers income growth in the west is 10 times and 80 times in the east respectively.The heterogeneity of the regional impact is not only from the natural environmental factors,but also from the regional social environment factors.Under the condition of unable to change the natural environment difference between regions,try to improve the social environment factors in the central and western regions,especially in the western regions is a practical measure to counteract the influence of natural disasters on agriculture and farmers.
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