Estimation of the actual disease burden of human H7N9 infection in Jiangsu of eastern China from March 2013 to September 2017

摘要

cqvip:The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabilistic multiplier model.Then,disability adjusted life years(DALYs),direct and indirect economic loss caused by this disease were calculated and analyzed.Till September 2017,the estimated total number of H7N9 cases was 2952[median,90%probability range(PR):1487-22094],which was 11.8 times(5.9-88.4)as large as the reported number.The median morbidity was estimated to be 4(90%PR:2-29)per 100000 population.The total DALYs loss was 16548 years,and the total economic loss(direct and indirect)was estimated to be RMB 1044618758(US$16.7 M).The average economic loss for per case and for per year was RMB 353868(US$56440)and RMB 232137502(US$37.0 M),respectively.The actual burden of human H7N9 infections was much heavier than what was documented.Our study provided an approach to estimate actual burden of infectious diseases using laboratory-confirmation.