[目的]研究吉林地表水资源对气候变化的响应.[方法]利用1960 ～2000年吉林省45个气象站的月平均气温和降水资料,以及松花江辽河流域56个水文站的逐月径流量资料,分析了该地区41年来地表径流变化及其对气候变化的响应.[结果]松辽流域径流量在20世纪60～70年代径流量呈持续偏少状态,80年代开始年径流量缓慢增加,进入90年代,年径流量有明显的波动变化,但整体趋于减少；EOF分析表明,松辽流域径流量自南向北逐渐减少的趋势,中心梯度较小,径流变化分布均匀；MK突变检验结果显示,80年代前和90年代后期松辽流域年径流量具有较大波动.吉林省地表径流量对气温、降水变化的响应较明显,表现出较强的相关性,且有一定的滞后性.在分析主要江河流域径流量与气象要素变化关系基础上,建立了流域地表径流量与气象要素之间的统计预测模型,得到的径流预测值与实测值相关性较好,根据气象要素的变化可以对相应流域地表径流量的变化进行预测评估.[结论]该研究为吉林地表水资源的开发和利用提供理论依据.%[Objective ] The response of surface water resources on climate changes was studied. [ Method ] By dint of monthly average tem perature and precipitation in 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2000, monthly runoff in 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe basin, the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change in 41 years were expoun ded. [ Result] The runoff of Songliao area was limited during 1960s and 1970s. It began to increase slowly in the early 1980s. Since 1990s, there were distinct fluctuation of annual runoff and it was decreasing in general. EOF analysis suggested theat the runoff of Songliao area was decreasing gradually from south to the north. The central gradient was small and runoff was evenly distributed. MK mutation test result showed that the annual runoff in Songliao area had large fluctuation befreo 1980s and after 1990s. The response of surface runoff on climate and pre cipitation changes in Jilin Province was distinct and had strong relevance as well as certain lagging. Based on the analysis of the relation of riv ers runoff and meteorological elements changes, statistics forecast model between river surface runoff and meteorological elements was construc ted. Runoff prediction value and measured value had good relation. The corresponding river surface runoff changes can be assessed based on the changes of meteorological elements. [ Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and utilization of surface water resources in Jilin.
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