[目的]为解决流域内社会经济发展与水环境污染物关系问题.[方法]从系统分析入手,将区域社会经济环境系统划分为社会、经济、水资源、水环境4个子系统.采用系统动力学方法,建立清河流域水环境系统动力学模型.同时,对2010～2020年清河流域社会经济发展的4种情景进行模拟预测.[结果]虽然方案1～3经济高速发展,但同时付出沉重的环境代价,而方案4在经济发展的同时,更加强调环境保护.因此,方案4为清河流域水环境模拟的最优方案.[结论]以优化经济结构、转变经济增长方式为主线,发展低能耗、低污染、低投入、高效益的产业,促进流域内经济社会、环境的协调发展.%[Objective]The research aimed to solve the problem of the relationship between reach social and economic development and water environment pollutants. [Method]Starting from system analysis,the system of regional social and economic environment was divided into four subsystems of society,economy, water resources, and water environment. Water environment system dynamics model of Qinghe River reach was established by using system dynamics. And four different scenarios of social-economic development of Qinghe River in 2010-2020 was simulated and predicted. [ Result] Although the scheme one showed high-speed economic development, heavy environmental cost should be paid. Scheme four could ensure the economic development, while more emphasis should be paid to environmental protection. So scheme four was the optimal solution. [Conclusion]In order to coordinate the basin's economic and social, environmental development, the economic structure, transform the e-conomic growth as the main line, develop low energy consumption, low pollution, low investment, high efficiency of the industry should be optimized.
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