Due to its special geographical location, topography and climatic conditions, Liaoning Province becone one of the provinces with more frequent and more serious meteorological disasters, especially the waterlogging disaster resulted from rainstorm which causes great losses to the national economy and the life and property of people. Climate warming leads to the change of precipitation pattern as well as the increase of the waterlogging frequency. According to the factors inducing the waterlogging and based on the meteorological conditions, the development trend of waterlogging is analyzed and the forecasting index systerm of waterlogging level is established, which has great practical significance to the prevention of the meteorological disasters and supplies scientific basis for meteorology serving agriculture.%辽宁省由于特殊的地理位置、地形和气候条件,成为气象灾害发生较频繁、较严重的省份之一.其中由暴雨引发的渍涝灾害是最主要的灾害,它给国民经济和人民生命财产带来巨大损失.气候变暖导致了降水格局的变化,也使渍涝灾害发生频率增加.从分析诱发渍涝灾害发生因子入手,以气象条件为基础,分析了渍涝灾害发展趋势,并建立了渍涝等级预报指标,对气象防灾减灾具有重要的现实意义,也为气象更好地服务农业提供科学的参考依据.
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