中国林业产业结构灰色预测分析

摘要

应用灰色关联分析方法研究了1996～2009 年我国林业系统的产值结构,并以GM(1,1)模型为基础,建立信息模型,对中国今后10年林业产业结构情况进行了预测.结果表明,1996～2009年林业三大产业与林业产值的灰色关联度分别为0.8491、0.731 1、0.821 3,排序为第二产业<第三产业<第一产业;预测结果显示,中国林业产业处于工业化中期,二、三产业将高速发展并占主导地位.%The grey relevance analysis was applied to study the 199 -2009 output value structure of china forestry system. Based on GM( 1,1 )model, information model was established to predict the forestry industrial structure of China in the next 10 years. Result showed that grey correlations between the three forestry industries and the forestry output value were O. 849 1, O. 731 1 and O. 821 3, respectively, with its order being secondary industry ＜ tertiary industry ＜ primary industry. Prediction result showed that forestry industry of China was in the middle stage of industrialization; and both secondary and tertiary industries would develop rapidly and became the leading industries.