灰色预测模型在我国油菜产量预测中的应用

摘要

Nicety rapeseed output forecast has vital guidance value for rapeseed crop area. By introducing the buffer operator to deal with the data’ s disturbance, a rapeseed output forecast model is built based on improved GM ( 1,1 ) model. Finally, through the example calculation,it is found that the improved GM ( 1,1 ) model could precisely predict the rapeseed output.%油菜产量的准确预测对油菜种植面积有重要的指导价值.将能排除数据干扰性的弱化算子引入GM(1,1)模型,建立了基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的我国油菜产量预测模型,最后通过实例演算,运用改进的GM(1,1)模型预测我国油菜产量具有较高的预测精度.