县级土地利用规划中耕地保有量预测研究——以陕西省米脂县为例

摘要

以陕西省米脂县为例,以2005年为规划基期,运用基于粮食安全法、供需平衡法和趋势外推法等3种方法对研究区2010、2020年的耕地需求量进行预测,并构建了固定权数组合模型对3种预测结果进行科学综合,最终预测出米脂县2010、2020年耕地需求量分别为40 967、36 556 hm2,为土地利用规划中耕地保有量的确定提供依据和参考.%With Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province as an example, the model, based on grain safety method, supply-demand balance methodrnami trend extrapolation method, wan udopled to predirl the cultivated land demand quantity in 2010 and 2020. The fixed weight combinedrnmodel was constructed to scientifically integrate three prediction results. Finally, The demand of farmland in Mizhi County in 2010 and 2010rnwas 40 967, 36 556 hm3 , which will provide basis and reference for the total amount of cultivated land in land-use planning.