基于蒙特卡罗模拟的绿色建筑节水和中水回用的决策模型

摘要

通过对绿色建筑节水和中水回用项目的全寿命周期成本构成的分析,采用净现值衡量的指标形式,构建了绿色建筑全寿命周期经济决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟的方法,以实际示范项目进行模拟应用,分别对绿色建筑和传统建筑的节水项目进行建模分析,实际验证了该模型和模拟方法的合理性和实用性,以期为绿色建筑项目的决策提供一种可借鉴、可操作的方法,以及为政府机构、决策部门和开发商的正确决策提供科学方法和理论依据.%Through analyzing the life cycle cost of the water conservation and intermediate water application project of conservation-minded buildings, net present value was applied as the index to establish the life cycle economic decision model. Monte Carlo simulation was used in demonstration cases, modeling analysis of water-saving projects in conservation-minded and traditional buildings verified rationality and practicability of this model and simulation method. It was to provide a referential and operable method for the decision-making of conservation-minded construction projects, as well as a scientific approach and theoretic basis for the precise decision-making of government organs, decision-making departments and developers.