基于GIS-BPNN的喀斯特小流域土地利用变化模拟——以都安澄江小流域为例

摘要

以都安县1988～2007年的历史资料为基础,运用GIS技术,利用CA模型,并采用标准的3层BP神经网络来获取模型中各空间变量的作用参数,对都安澄江小流域未来的土地利用/覆盖变化的空间格局进行模拟.结果表明,从1999～2015年,都安澄江小流域城建用地、耕地、尤其是未利用地呈扩展趋势,草地、林地呈减少趋势,水体变化不大.%According to the historical data of Du' an County from 1988 to 2007, by using GIS technology and CA model, the standard three-BPNN was adopted to acquire all the space variable parameters of the model to simulate the land use /cover change of Duan Chengjiang watershed. As indicated by the results, in the watershed, the area of blalt land, farmland, especially unused and was expanding during 1999 -2015, the area of grassland and woodland was decreasing, the area of waters changed insignificantly.