基于GIS和加权综合指数模型的2015年广西旱灾风险暴露度评估

摘要

对广西14个地级市的旱灾风险暴露度进行评估,为广西防旱减灾决策提供依据.利用2015年广西各类干旱灾情统计资料,结合耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、人口密度、社会经济等资料,构建干旱灾害风险暴露度评估指标体系.借助综合加权指数模型对广西干旱灾害风险人口暴露度、经济暴露度与农业暴露度进行分析与评估.最后给出了基于人口暴露度、经济暴露度与农业暴露度3个条件的干旱灾害风险暴露度区划.结果表明,2015年干旱灾害风险暴露度较高的有南宁市、桂林市、钦州市,整体趋势是桂中、桂东北高,沿海地区普遍偏低.%In order to provide the basis for Guangxi drought mitigation decision, the study assessed the drought risk exposure in 14 prefecture level cities in Guangxi.Based on the statistical data of drought disaster of Guangxi in 2015, the index system of drought risk exposure was established based on the data of cultivated land area, effective irrigation area, population density, social economy and so on.Based on the comprehensive weighted index model, the exposure degree, economic exposure degree and agricultural exposure degree of drought risk population in Guangxi were analyzed and estimated.Finally, based on the population exposure, economic exposure and agricultural exposure, the risk degree zoning of drought disaster was proposed.The results showed that the drought risk exposure of Nanning, Guilin and Qinzhou was high, the overall trend was high in central and northeastern Guangxi,and the coastal areas were generally low in 2015.