为了在反导作战中对态势预测提供方法支撑，运用DS证据理论进行目标意图预测。根据相关证据的权重对传统的DS证据理论组合规则进行了改进；提取了弹道导弹在飞行过程中目标意图预测的关键要素，给出了基于DS证据理论的目标意图预测的方法步骤。最后结合想定进行了仿真，计算出各目标意图的基本概率赋值并给出了决策。仿真结果表明，DS证据理论运用到弹道导弹目标意图预测是可行的，可为反导作战提供辅助决策依据。%In order to provide a methodological support for situation forecast in antimissile operation, this paper carries on the target intention prediction by using the DS evidence theory. By taking the weight of relevant evidence, the traditional combination rules of DS evidence theory is improved, the key factors of target intention prediction of ballistic missile in the course of flight are extracted, the procedure of target intention prediction based on DS evidence theory is given, and finally, the model is simulated by combining with the scenario, thus computing the basic probability assignment of each target intention and giving the decision. Simulation results show that it is available for DS evidence theory applying to the target intention prediction of ballistic missile, which can provide an auxiliary decision-making basis for anti-missile operation.
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