奎屯河流域吉勒德水文站降水量变化趋势分析

摘要

采用线性倾向估计法、模比系数差积曲线法、 Mann-Kendall法，对奎屯河流域吉勒德水文站1960-2012年的月降水量资料进行分析研究，结果表明1960-1986年水文站降水处于枯水期，1987-2012年处于丰水期，1986年是丰枯转化的关键年，未来降水量仍处于增加趋势中。%Kuitun River Ji Lede hydrological station from January 1960-2012 precipitation data is analyzed and studied,with linear trend estimation,modulus ratio coefficient difference curves method,Mann-Kendall method;results showed that the hydrological years 1960-1986 station rainfall in the dry season;from 1987 to 2012 in the wet season,1986 is the key year of wet dry season transformation;the future is still in an upward trend in precipitation.