小型震损水库溃坝概率研究

摘要

The dam is a low-probability,high-hazard social causal factors,once the harm is huge crash.Event tree method has broader application in risk analysis of dam failure.It can be qualitatively understand the dy-namic process of the entire event,and calculate the probability of each stage,and ultimately to understand the probability of an accident occurring during the development of the various states.Combined with the status of Caojia reservoir located in An County,Sichuan Province,using the event tree method assessed the risk of the dam failure,and summed up the excellence of the method for the analysis of dam failure caused by small earthquake.%溃坝是一种低概率、高危害的社会致灾因素，一旦失事其危害十分巨大。事件树法在溃坝风险分析中应用较广。它既可以定性地了解整个事件的动态变化过程，又可以定量计算出各阶段的概率，最终了解事故发展过程中各种状态的发生概率。结合四川省安县曹家水库现状，利用事件树法对水库进行溃坝风险评估，并根据风险要素，总结出事件树法对分析小型震损水库溃坝概率的优越性。