引力模型下人民币汇率对贸易量的影响--基于欧盟28国贸易的实证分析

摘要

As China’s largest trading partner and the largest source of imports, the EU has become more and more important in China’s foreign trade. Therefore, the study of China-EU trade has become one of the focus of academic attention in recent years. In this paper, we use the panel data of 2005-2014 to establish the trade gravity model, which includes the basic variables such as per capita GDP, trade distance and so on. Then we use the model to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on EU trade volume under the background of RMB globalization.%欧盟作为当前中国最大的贸易伙伴和中国最大的进口技术来源地，在中国对外贸易中所处的地位越来越重要。因此中欧贸易的研究也在近些年来成为学术界关注的重点之一。文章利用2005-2014年的面板数据建立了包括人均GDP、贸易距离等基本变量的贸易引力模型。然后运用得到的模型来评价在人民币全球化背景下人民币汇率波动对欧盟各国贸易量的影响情况。