旅游业与林业互动发展长期效应的实证研究——基于我国1998-2010年省级面板数据的协整分析

摘要

Based on the provincial date from 1998-2010 in China,the article uses panel co-integration analysis method to research the interactive development effect between tourism industry and forestry.The study found that： there was significant co-integration relationship between china＇s tourism income and forestry production value and they had positive interaction development effect;in the national level,the effect of forestry promoting tourism was more significant;in the provincial level,the development of forestry more significantly promoted the development of tourism in 21 regions,the development of tourism more greatly promoted the development of forestry in 8 regions and another 2 areas achieved equal favorable interaction development effect.%依据1998-2010年的省际数据,利用面板协整分析方法,对我国旅游业和林业互动发展效应进行实证研究,发现我国旅游收入和林业产值之间存在显著协整关系,旅游业和林业之间存在正向互动发展效应。在全国层面,林业促进旅游业发展的效应大于旅游业促进林业发展的效应;在省级层面,河北等21个地区林业促进旅游业发展的效应大于旅游业促进林业发展的效应,北京等8个地区旅游业促进林业发展的效应大于林业促进旅游业发展的效应,海南和新疆2个地区旅游业和林业之间实现了较为对等的良性互动发展。