日本经济政策不确定性和经济衰退

摘要

In this paper,we use the uncertainty index of Japanese economic policy issued by Baker et al to study the characteristics of Japanese economic policy uncertainty.The uncertainty of Japan's economic pol-icy has obvious"political parties",which is closely related to the frequent political elections in Japan.In addition,the high uncertainty of Japan's economic policy lasted for a long time.Based on the data after the Japanese bubble economy,we find that the uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on the final demand.Therefore,it is proved that the uncertainty of economic policy is an important driving force for the recession,which provides a new explanation for the long decline of the Japanese economy af-ter the bursting of the bubble economy.%文章利用Baker等发布的日本经济政策不确定性指数研究了日本经济政策不确定性的特征.日本经济政策不确定性具有明显的"政党色彩"——经济政策不确定性与日本频繁的政治选举密切相关.此外,日本经济政策不确定性持续时间较长.基于日本泡沫经济破灭后的数据,发现经济政策不确定性对最终需求具有显著的负向冲击.从而验证了经济政策不确定性本身是导致衰退的重要驱动力,这为解释日本经济在泡沫经济破灭后长期处于衰退提供了新的解释.