Objective: To retrospectively analyze 85 hospitalizednonoperative patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP) and to find out the stages of the disease.Methods: We statistically calculated the time of onsetof complications in these patients from 1987 to 1999.Results: The 95% confidence interval of total averagefor the complications of acute respiratory distress syn-drome (ARDS), shock and kidney failure was between2 to 4 days, and for encephalopathy, hemorrhage ofthe digestive tract, bacterial infection, fungous infec-tion and abscess between 3 to 6 days, 3 to 5 days, 13to 16 days, 13 to 16 days, and 14 to 23 days respec-tively. The 95% confidence interval of total averagein 18 deaths (21%) was between 5 to 6 days. ARDS,kidney failure, and shock occurred within 4 days, en-cephalopathy within 6 days (average 4.8±0.9 days),abscesses after 14 days, systemic bacterial infectionand fungous infection within half a month (average14.6±1.1days, 14.8±0.9days respectively), and deathwithin 6 days.Conclusion: According to the time of the occurrence ofcomplications, we divide the courses of the disease intothree stages: early phase(first 4 days) with ARDS,kidney failure, shock, encephalopathy and hemorrhageof the digestive tract; middle phase (5-15 days) withbacterial infection and fungous infection; late phase(15 days after the onset) with abscess.
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