金砖国家合作发展与经济周期的同步性

摘要

研究金砖国家的经济周期是否具有同步性，不仅有利于观察金砖五国的趋同性，而且有利于五国未来利用用金砖国家这个平台进行政策协调。采用共同趋势和共同周期的计量经济学研究方法进行验证，结果表明金转国家的经济周期在长期内有共同趋势。未来金砖国家可以在五国内部先行建立自贸区，进一步强化彼此间的经贸交流和金融合作，真正发挥金砖国家的合作与协调机制。%The paper thinks the research whether the economic cycles of BRICS have the synchronism, it not only has the advantage to observe the con- vergence of BRICS, but also has the advantage that five countries uses BRICS as the policy coordination platform. This paper uses the common tendency and the common cyclical to verify the thinks above, finally indicated that the econom- ic cycles of BRICS have the common tendency in the long term. In the future BRICS may establish FTA in five countries, further strengthen the cooperation of the economics and trade among BRICS, really play the cooperation and coordinat- ed mechanism in BRICS.