基于马尔科夫链的双渠道供应链库存优化决策

摘要

针对目前双渠道顾客需求不稳定带来的库存控制风险，利用顾客需求转移定性描述顾客需求不稳定，提出基于马尔科夫链的双渠道供应链库存优化模型。考虑双渠道不合作和合作两种情况，应用马尔科夫链方法，分别建立双渠道库存均衡状态概率模型和库存合作转运价格契约模型。通过Matlab算例仿真，分析渠道间顾客转移率对双渠道供应链最优库存策略的影响，得出在两个渠道顾客需求转移时，双渠道供应链合作下的库存策略要优于不合作下的库存策略。%With the inventory control risk caused by customer demand instability in the dual channel sup -ply chain considered , based on Markov chain , an inventory optimization model in dual channel supply chain is put forward by using customer demand shift to describe customer demand instability .For dual channel cooperation and non-cooperation cases , Markov theory is used to build a model of steady-state probability of inventory and the inventory cooperation transfer price contract , respectively .Then, through Matbab numerical simulation , the influence of customer shift rate between channels on optimal inventory strategy in a dual channel supply chain is analyzed .It is found that inventory strategy with dual channel supply chain cooperation is better than that without cooperation when there is a customer demand shift in the two channels .