中国租车产业的快速发展受到居民收入上升和城市拥堵等因素的影响,基于共享经济视角,研究中国租车产业的需求及拥堵治理的政策效应具有重要现实意义.在建构租车需求模型基础上,运用神州租车10个城市的面板数据来探讨居民收入、城市拥堵和拥堵管制政策等因素对中国租车产业发展的影响.研究发现:(1)居民收入对租车需求有较强的正向影响和较高的收入弹性,但访客收入对租车需求的影响都不显著,因此是居民而非访客主导租车需求.(2)城市交通拥堵会提升车辆道路通行成本,进而显著削弱租车需求.(3)车牌竞拍、限行、摇号等拥堵管制政策抑制了租车需求,但进一步加大了居民收入和私家车保有量对租车需求的正向影响,也提升了交通拥堵对租车需求的抑制效应.大中城市可采取差异化的拥堵管制政策鼓励具有共享经济效率的租车产业发展.%The rapid development of China`s car rental industry is affected by the rising income,the urban congestion and other factors,and this paper is the first try to empirically discuss the main influencing factors of China`s car rental industry.By constructing a car rental demand model,we discuss the impact of factors like income and urban congestion on the development of car rental industry based on a 10-main-cities` panel data of the CAR Inc.The result is: (1) income has a strong positive impact on car rental demand with higher demand elasticity,but the impact of visitors is not significant,so it is residents but not visitors that dominates the car rental market.(2) Urban traffic congestion will increase car-transporting cost,and then significantly reduce car rental demand.(3) The regulatory policies like license plates,traffic controls,license-plate lottery increase the positive impact of the income and the private car ownership on rental demand further,and traffic congestion has an inhibiting effect on rental demand.Cities could urge the development of the car rental industry with sharing-economy efficiency by differential regulation policies.
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