随着长江上游水库建设以及自然条件气候变化的影响，近些年长江上游各支流水文条件发生了较大变化，长系列历史资料以及基于天然河道所编制的水文预报方法不能完全适应新形势下生产调度的需要。必须开展三峡水库上游流域自然条件、流域径流等多方面变化的总结分析工作，建立考虑受气候变化和人类活动影响的流域水文预报模型，解决变化条件下的三峡入库径流预测问题，为实现流域梯级水电站群的安全高效运行和洪水资源化利用，提供科学和技术支撑。%With the development of reservoirs and climatic condition changes in the upstream Yangtze river basin , the hydrologic conditions of branches are also of big changes .Hydrologic forecasting models based on the long series history data and natural river channel are no longer suitable for reservoir dispatching .In this case , analysis should be made on the changes in the upstream Yangtze river basin such as natural conditions and basin runoff .Hydrologic forecasting mod-el considering climatic condition changes and impacts of human activities then can be developed to accurately predict the flow entering the Three Gorges reservoir , which provides scientific and technical supports for the safe operation of the cascade hydropower stations in the upstream Yangtze river and full utilization of water resources .
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