利用1961-2013年黑龙江省62个气象站逐日日最低气温资料，在单站寒潮的基础上定义了黑龙江省区域寒潮标准，统计分析了黑龙江省区域寒潮的气候特征和环流特征，在此基础上，基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预测模式业务系统（DERF2.0）1983-2013年对黑龙江地区的回报试验结果，对黑龙江省区域寒潮的11-30 d的延伸期预测进行了检验评估。结果表明：黑龙江省区域寒潮大都发生在冬半年，频次总体呈减少趋势；冬季各月寒潮频次与亚洲纬向环流呈正相关关系，与鄂霍次克海高压呈反相关关系；DERF2.0在11-30 d的延伸期预报上对黑龙江省的区域寒潮有一定的预测技巧，预测准确率可达到40%左右，但仍有较大的改进空间。%Defined the area cold wave standard of Heilongjiang province based on single station cold wave stan-dard with 62 meteorological stations daily minimum temperature data in Heilongjiang province from 1961 to 2013, and analyze the climate characteristics and circulation characteristics of the regional cold wave of Hei-longjiang province. Based on the return test results of Heilongjiang from 1983 to 2013 from National Climate Center Monthly Dynamic Extended Prediction System (DERF2.0) to test and evaluate the extended range cold wave forecast of Heilongjiang province for 11-30 days .The results show that, the regional cold occurs mostly in winter and the frequency decreased. There is a positive correlation between the cold wave frequency in each month and the zonal circulation in Asia, and it is inverse correlation with the Okhotsk high; RF2.0 in the 11 -30 days of the extension forecast of the regional cold wave in Heilongjiang province have some prediction skills, prediction accuracy can reach 40%, but there is still much room for improvement.
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