An Epidemic Model for the Propagation of Leptospirosis Outbreaks

摘要

Leptospirosis is a disease of worldwide distribution caused by spirochetes of the genus Leptospira.Rodents have been recognized as the most important and most widely distributed reservoirs of leptospirosis.In different regions of the world,there are outbreaks of leptospirosis that have a seasonal distribution and coincide with the rainy months.One way to study the spread of epidemics is through mathematical models.In the present work,the objective of the authors was to develop and explore a model of leptospirosis outbreak,combining the dynamics of propagation in human population with the dynamics of transmission from rodent reservoirs to humans.The authors designed a deterministic model based on differential equations.The dynamics of the model were explored through computational simulations.The typical evolution of prevalence observed in the model,qualitatively coincides with the dynamics of actual leptospirosis outbreaks.In the model,the peak prevalence was reduced when the transmission parameter and the number of rodents decreased,and when the lepospira decay rate increased.These results coincide with what was expected.The present development could be considered as a starting point for the generation of a more complex design.