畜牧业高科技项目的投资风险评价

摘要

为了探明畜牧业高科技项目的投资风险,对其引进私人风险提供理论指导,在分析畜牧业高科技项目风险特点的基础上,建立风险评估指标体系,基于指标具有不确定性的特点,采用数据包络分析(DEA)和模糊综合评价相结合的方法进行风险评估研究,并采用实例进行验证.结果表明:该组合模型简单易行,解决了DEA方法不能评价不确定性指标的不足,同时考虑到了评价项目之间的联系,避免了模糊综合评价方法中人为确定权重的影响.%The index system of risk evaluation was established on the basis of the high-tech projects features in animal husbandry and the risk evaluation was studied by using the combined method of DEA and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to prove the investment risk of high-tech projects in animal husbandry because of the uncertainty indexesand to provide theorectical guidance for private investment in animal huabandry.The results from verifying a case showed that the combined method with easy operating could overcome DEA disadivantages in evaluation of uncertainty indexes and avoid the effect of the artificial determined weights on the relation between different evaluation projects.