地面沉降是天津市最主要的地质灾害。主要是由于水资源短缺而长期超量开采地下水。以西青区郑庄子分层标为中心选取局部模拟区，利用 Processing Modflow软件，开展地面沉降与地下水流场相关关系数值模拟。建立该区域的水文地质概念模型、数学模型和数值模型，确定与实际情况较为相符的水文地质参数。通过对比模拟数据与实际观测数据，证明模拟效果良好，地下水流场曲线与地面沉降曲线拟合情况理想。分析表明，在保证参数与实际水文地质情况基本相符的情况下，虽然数值模型方法计算沉降量与实际观测值存在误差，但整体能反映其沉降变化过程。%Land subsidence, the main geological disaster in Tianjin, is mainly caused by water resource shortage and over-exploitation. By using Processing Modflow, the paper makes a numerical simulation of groundwater flow to explore the rela-tionship between land subsidence and groundwater. To build the numerical simulation model, the study build a concept model and math model of the hydrogeological conditions, according to which hydrogeological parameters which may reflet the reality are identified. The comparison between data from numerical simulation model and on-site data indicates that the model is ac-curate, and the groundwater flow curve is in accordance with land subsidence curve. Tests in this paper indicate that when the parameters used in numerical simulation model establishment can reflect real hydrogeological conditions, the numerical simula-tion method could be used to present the process of land subsidence though the simulate data has few errors with field measure-ments.
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