Application of the Weighted Logistic Regression model in prediction of volcanic rock type Copper deposits in the Middle part of Ning-Wu Basin is studied. First, the geological setting of ore-forming processes is analyzed. Three kinds of factors including geological body, structure and wall rock alteration are extracted based on the spatial distribution of copper deposits from the geologic map. Then, the spatial relationships between Copper mineral occurrence and each evidence factor are analyzed. It is suggested that Niangniangshan and Gushan volcanic edifice play an important role in spatial distributions of volcanic rock-hosted Copper deposits. The ten evidence raster layers including Longwangshan Formation, Gushan Formation, trachyte porphyry of Gushan volcanic edifice, monzonite porphyry of Niangniangshan volcanic edifice, buffers of the structure lines with NE, NW and EW trending, and the alteration areas of chalcopyrite, silicide and Limonite are selected. Finally, metallogenic probabilities are calculated using the Weighted Logistic Regression model. Four ore-forming prospects, including P1, P2, P3 and P4, are indicated based on the geological conditions of metallogenesis and model results. Among these prospecting areas, P1, P2 and P3, which are controlled by Niangniangshan and Gushan volcanic edifice, are spread in the northeast direction. P4 extends in the west-east direction and is controlled by Longwangshan volcanic edifice. The copper ore bodies are already found in these prospecting areas, suggesting that the results should be generally reliable.%文中探讨了加权Logistic回归模型在宁芜盆地中段火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用.首先,结合研究区的成矿地质背景,提取地质体、构造、围岩蚀变三大类证据因子;其次,分析各证据因子与铜矿点之间的空间关系,认为姑山旋回、娘娘山旋回火山机构控制了本区火山岩型铜矿的空间分布,根据计算结果,选取与火山岩型铜矿密切相关的龙王山组、姑山组地层,姑山旋回粗面斑岩、娘娘山旋回二长斑岩、NW向构造1.5 km缓冲区、NE向构造1.3 km缓冲区、EW向构造4.5 km缓冲区、硅化、褐铁矿化、黄铜矿化等作为模型自变量;最后采用加权Logistic回归模型进行成矿概率计算,并结合成矿地质背景,圈定四个成矿远景区,分别为P1、P2、P3、P4,其中P1、P2、P3呈北东向展布,主要受娘娘山和姑山火山机构控制,P4为东西向分布,主要受龙王山火山机构控制,在这些预测区中,均存在已发现的铜矿体,说明预测可信度较高.
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