南平市小麦赤霉病发生和气象条件的关系

摘要

以2003--2011年南平地区小麦3个对照品种的赤霉病发生程度为研究对象，对小麦赤霉病的病情指数、发病率进行调查，并与开花期温度、降雨量的进行相关性分析，然后在逐步回归分析的基础上建立小麦赤霉病对照品种发生程度的动态预测模式，拟合率为92．6％。%The degree of damage of wheat scab for three check wheat varieties was investigated based on disease index and the incidence in 2003-2011 at Nanping city, china, and the investigation data were made a correlation analysis with the temperature and rainfall within flowering period of wheat. Then a different phases forecast mode of damage degree of wheat scab for 3 check varieties was established with stepwise regression, which was found to have a good fitness of 92.6%.