A Bayesian modeling approach to bi-directional pedestrian flows in carnival events

摘要

Bi-directional pedestrian flows are common at crosswalks, footpaths, and shopping areas. However, the properties of pedestrian movement may vary in urban areas according to the type of walking facility. In recent years,crowd movements at carnival events have attracted the attention of researchers. In contrast to pedestrian behavior in other walking facilities, pedestrians whose attention is attracted by carnival displays or activities may slow down and even stop walking. The Lunar New Year Market is a traditional carnival event in Hong Kong held annually one week before the Lunar New Year. During the said event,crowd movements can be easily identified, particularly in Victoria Park, where the largest Lunar New Year Market in Hong Kong is hosted. In this study, we conducted a videobased observational survey to collect pedestrian flow and speed data at the Victoria Park Lunar New Year Market on the eve of the Lunar New Year. Using the collected data, an extant mathematical model was calibrated to capture the relationships between the relevant macroscopic quantities,thereby providing insight into pedestrian behavior at the carnival event. Bayesian inference was employed to calibrate the model by using prior data obtained from a previous controlled experiment. Results obtained enhance our understanding of crowd behavior under different conditions at carnival events, thus facilitating the improvement of the safety and efficiency of similar events in the future.