Typhoon parameter sensitivity of storm surge in the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay

摘要

In this study,a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters,such as the point of landfall,approach angle,forward speed,size,and intensity.The typhoon simulation was validated for Typhoon Lan in 2017,and 31 hypothetical storm surge scenarios were generated to establish the sensitivity of peak surge height to the variation in typhoon parameters.The maximum storm surge height in the upper bay adjacent to the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was found to be highly sensitive to the forward speed and size of the passing typhoon.However,the importance of these parameters in disaster risk reduction has been largely overlooked by researchers and disaster managers.It was also determined that of the many hypothetical typhoon tracks evaluated,the slow passage of a large and intense typhoon transiting parallel to the longitudinal axis of Tokyo Bay,making landfall 25 km southwest,is most likely to cause a hazardous storm surge scenario in the upper-bay area.The results of this study are expected to be useful to disaster managers for advanced preparation against destructive storm surges.