This paper uses the overseas patent families, output of each country to measure and compare the innovation trend and fluctu-ation of each country. The research finds that the innovation activities in China are fast-catching in the long-term trend, and experience consistent convergence with the developed countries in the periodic fluctuation. At the same time, the study finds that exogenous condi-tions such as geographical systems are not the core of the global innovation cycle synchronization. The innovation cycle synergy between countries mainly influenced by bilateral creative talent flow and bilateral innovation structure. For further developing into an innovative country and better catching the global innovation trend, it is essential to promote the international science and technology cooperation with countries with high talent flow and technological innovation.%本文使用各国的海外专利产出度量各国的创新趋势与波动情况, 并运用海外专利族数量实证测算了中国与世界主要国家的创新周期活动规律.研究发现了中国创新活动在长期趋势上处于全球快速追赶的位置, 而在周期性波动上也在和发达国家快速趋同.同时, 本文研究发现地理制度等外生条件并不是全球创新周期协动的核心因素, 而是通过双边创新人才流动和双边创新结构影响各国间的创新周期协同性, 而以投资开放为主的经济一体化会进一步加剧"创新—生产"的分工机制, 会削弱两国间的创新周期协同性.因此, 要进一步提高开放水平的基础上, 积极开展与人才流动频繁和技术创新领域较为接近的国家的国际科技合作是推动中国引领把握国际创新周期的重要手段.
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