全国较大级别以上火灾高风险区划分

摘要

以较大级别以上的火灾为研究对象,从空间维度,采用系统聚类方法对全国31个行政区进行等级划分,明确了全国较大级别以上火灾风险高风险区.结果表明,广东、浙江、上海、吉林较大级别以上火灾风险最高.从时间维度采用信息扩散理论,以近年火灾数据为样本,建立信息扩散模型,对火灾风险大小进行定量分析.结果表明:在全国火灾重灾区,每年一万起火灾中,极有可能有5起以上较大级别以上火灾.%The greater level fire accidents were focused on.Firstly, from the viewpoint of space, 31 administrative regions in China were classified using the method of system clustering, to determine the greater level fire accidents in China, and the results showed that, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jilin had the highest level of the greater level fire risk.And then from the viewpoint of time, information diffusion theory was adopted to build information diffusion model based on fire accidents data in recent years for quantitative risk analysis.Results showed that, if ten thousand fire accidents occur each year, more than five larger level fire accident will occur in those areas.