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The Impact of BW Emotional Index on China''''s A - Share Market Returns

机译:BW情绪指数对中国A股市场收益的影响

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摘要

Investor sentiment has its characteristics of the inherent complexity and changing. In this paper, through the analysis of the "investor sentiment and cross-sectional data on the impact of stock returns"[1] published by Baker and others in 2006, combining with the specific situation of China''s securities market, and basing on the BW model to select Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index turnover rate and other 5 emotional indices, and using the principal component analysis to build a monthly investor sentiment index of China''s securities market. The principal component analysis of residual that calculated by a regression of emotional indicators and macroeconomic data is carried out, to get macroscopical emotional indicators that removes macro factors. Finally, OLS regression analysis is carried out with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index to find that the constructed emotional index has a significant effect on the yield of China''s stock market, thus verifying the validity of the emotional index.
机译:投资者情绪具有其固有的复杂性和变化性。本文通过对贝克等人在2006年发布的“投资者情绪和股票收益影响的横截面数据” [1]的分析,结合中国证券市场的具体情况,并以BW模型为基础,选择沪深300指数周转率等5种情感指数,并运用主成分分析法建立了中国证券市场的月度投资者信心指数。通过对情绪指标和宏观经济数据进行回归计算,对残差进行主成分分析,以获得去除宏观因素的宏观情绪指标。最后,通过上海综合指数和深圳成分指数进行OLS回归分析,发现所构建的情绪指数对中国股市收益具有显着影响,从而验证了情绪指数的有效性。

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