国际资本流动逆转对中国货币政策有效性的影响

摘要

在经济全球化背景下, 国际资本流动的速度不断提升, 也开始出现方向性逆转, 这种未预见的资金流动将打破传统资金链条, 加剧宏观经济风险.构建小型开放经济条件下的两国DSGE模型, 分析国际资本流动逆转在不同货币规则下对货币政策有效性的影响.实证结果表明, 固定汇率制规则下各经济变量对国际资本流动逆转的反应程度最强烈, 对经济的影响作用也最大;非贸易商品价格通胀率目标制和消费价格指数目标制各有优劣, 各经济变量在非贸易商品价格通胀率目标制下表现出更大的平稳性, 在消费价格指数目标规则制下反应幅度较小, 但波动性比较强烈.研究结论对统筹协调货币政策与资本流动间的关系, 提高政策效果的有效性具有重要政策启示.基于研究结论, 中国应加快利率、汇率市场化进程, 加强国际资本流动监测的有效性, 同时加强货币政策的国际合作与协调.%Based on the current context of economic globalization, international capital flows continue to accelerate and a directional reversal is beginning to emerge. This unpredicted capital flow is likely to break the traditional capital chain and aggravate macroeconomic risks. Therefore, this study constructed a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ( DSGE) model under the condition of a small open economy and analyzed the impact of the reversal of international capital flow on the effectiveness of monetary policies under different currency regulations. The empirical results revealed that with a currency regulation defined based on a fixed exchange rate, the responses of all economic variables towards the reversal of international capital flow was found to be the strongest, and the corresponding impact on the economy appeared to be the greatest. Currency regulations based on the inflation rate of non-tradable goods and the consumer price index, respectively, have their own advantages and disadvantages. Analysis of the economic variables showed greater overall stability in the currency regulation based on the inflation rate of non-tradable goods. The variables of the currency regulation based on the consumer price index were relatively less responsive;however, they were far more volatile. The findings of the study have important policy-based implications for the coordinating of the relationships between monetary policy and capital flow and may help to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on these results, the Chinese government should accelerate the marketization of interest rates and exchange rates, reinforce the effectiveness of international capital flow monitoring, and strengthen international cooperation and coordination of monetary policies.