中哈贸易出口效率及潜力研究--基于随机前沿引力模型

摘要

Under the background of“Silk Road Economic Zone”, China and Central Asian trade have become the hot topic. This paper selects the panel data of trade between China and 31 countries from 1995 to 2014, using the stochastic frontier gravity mod-el to study the export trade efficiency and trade potential of China and Kazakhstan. Results showed that: although Kazakhstan’ s export trade efficiency in each year is on the rise, average efficiency of 0. 214, export trade efficiency is still low, export potential is larger, the average export trade to expand the space for the 245. 18%, shows that China and Kazakhstan’ s foreign trade still has a lot of upside. Therefore,we present policy recommendations with exploring the export potential as the aim.%内容提在“丝绸之路经济带”背景下,中国与中亚贸易研究成为热点话题。本文选取了1995年—2014年中国与31个国家的贸易面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型重点对中国与哈萨克斯坦的出口贸易效率以及贸易潜力进行研究。结果表明：中哈两国出口贸易效率虽然每年呈上升趋势,平均效率为0.214,但出口贸易效率仍较低,说明出口潜力较大；出口平均贸易拓展空间为245.18%,说明我国与哈萨克斯坦的对外贸易仍有很大的上升空间。为此,本文以挖掘出口贸易潜力为目标,提出了相应的政策建议。