基于储存寿命的战储器材轮换方法研究

摘要

Aiming at the shortage of traditional alternation method in combat readiness reserve material, combining with less failure data of long storage material and unable real-time monitoring, a method of analyzing storage reliability of small sample with periodic testing data was put forward, which was used to estimate storage life for determination of alternation period. Particle swarm optimization was used to overcome the shortages of iterative method, which is long operation time and significant influence of selected initial value on convergence. It was proved that the method can get identical result with engineering practice. The purpose was to provide effective decision support for alternation of readiness reserve material.%　　针对传统轮换方法在战储器材轮换上的缺陷和不足，结合长储器材失效数据较少、无法实时检测等特点，提出了一种利用定期检测数据分析小子样储存可靠度，并估计其储存寿命来确定轮换期的方法。在求解寿命分布参数时，为克服迭代法运算时间较长、初始值选取对迭代结果收敛性影响较大等不足，利用粒子群算法求解。通过实例分析表明，该方法得到的结果与工程实际相吻合，能为战储器材的轮换提供有效的决策支持。