中国废水排放量预测研究

摘要

文章在综合分析中国废水排放量影响因素的基础上，结合ARMA、多元线性回归方法构建了中国废水排放量预测模型，并对2013年-2015年中国废水排放量进行了预测，结果表明：2013年-2015年中国废水排放量将分别达到729.98亿吨、768.97亿吨、810.71亿吨；造纸印刷及文教用品制造业、化学工业等行业废水排放量及单位增加值废水排放量均较大，相关部门需对减排的各个过程进行规范和严格的监督。%In this paper, a model to predict the wastewater emission in China was established with comprehensive factor anal-ysis, combining the ARMA and OLS methods.This model was adopted to predict wastewater emission from 2013 to 2015 in Chi-na.The results showed that the national wastewater emission of 2013-2015 will reach 72 998, 76 897 and 81 071 million tons respectively, and industries like paper printing and stationery manufacturing, chemical industry, discharged a large amount of wastewater and their wastewater emission by unit added value was also very high.These industries need to be monitored strictly.