Overcapacity of coal power in China has been a tricky question and is increasingly being the focus of recent energy policy. This study is conducted around issues including the indicators for measuring overcapacity, the quantification of overcapacity and the pathway of de-capacity. First, we employs province-based energy and power balance model to calculate the actual reserve margins and reasonable annual utilization hours of each provincial power system and compares the differences between reasonable and actual reserve margins and utilization hours. Furthermore, with estimated reasonable reserve margins, we calculate the reasonable capacity of coal power in each province. Compared with actual coal power capacity, we have estimated the excess scale coal power. Second, after evaluating the excess scale of the coal power in 2015, we have predicted the scenario in 2020. Finally, we have designed the pathway of de-capacity policy with a detailed representation of existing fleet and new projects under construction.%中国煤电过剩问题日益受到各方关注.本文围绕煤电过剩的衡量标准、过剩规模的量化和去产能路径设计等问题展开研究.首先,运用分省电力电量平衡模型测算了各省的实际备用率和合理年利用小时数,通过实际备用率与合理备用率的对比以及实际年利用小时数和合理年利用小时数的对比来体现"是否过剩"的问题,并在各省合理备用率的条件下匡算了各省合理的装机容量,在与实际装机规模的对比中得出过剩规模.进而,展望了2020年煤电过剩情景.本文对在役和在建机组进行分类统计后,分析了煤电去产能的调控路径并对此提出若干政策建议.
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