For the power supply enterprises,the index of the sale of electricity is very important,for a long time,many studies have been based on qualitative analysis,or only quantitative analysis of net capacity has been considered.In view of the above situation,this paper taking Zhejiang power grid as an example to probe into the relation between the sale of electricity industry based on the expansion for the purpose of expanding the capacity of various research in the first industry capacity expansion component or a combination of quantity of electricity sales affected most closely;secondly using the X12 method to the business expansion capacity component or combination of seasonal decomposition,then the lag in the seasonal component were analyzed to obtain the optimal month;then using regression analysis to predict the trend component,to predict the seasonal component using moving average weighted algorithm;finally the final forecast seasonal prediction component and trend component of the sum of the value of sales of electricity.The practice shows that this method can not only expand industry capacity component or a combination of the relationship between the amount of the sale of electricity and find the most closely,but also can find the optimal business expansion capacity lag month,and get the forecasting value at 3％ in error rate.%对于供电企业来说,售电量指标非常重要,长期以来许多研究要么以定性分析为主,要么就是只考虑净增容量的定量分析.针对上述情况,本文以浙江电网为例基于探究售电量于业扩的关系为目的,首先从业扩各种容量入手研究对售电量影响关系最密切的业扩容量分量或组合量;其次利用X12方法将该业扩容量分量或组合进行季节分解,然后对季节分量的滞后月份进行相关性分析得出最优月份;再利用回归分析法对趋势分量进行预测,利用移动平均加权算法对季节分量进行预测;最后将季节预测分量和趋势分量相加得出售电量的最终预测值.通过实践表明,通过本文方法不但可以找到与售电量关系最密切的业扩容量分量或组合量,而且可以找到该业扩容量的最优滞后月份,并且以误差率在3％上下得到售电量的预测值.
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