计及风电的系统旋转备用容量的确定

摘要

The probability characteristics of factors for the load forecast deviation, wind power prediction error and unit shipment are studied. The characteristics are introduced into the probability model of unit shipment capacity calculation. The reliability indexes of system that connect wind are developed. According to the system reliability index, the increase or decrease spinning reserve capacity for each time interval is determined. Therefore, system that have enough increase reserve capacity ensure users not break the increase load and have enough decrease reserve capacity ensure not cut wind units when wind power generation power is fluctuation. The reliability of different reserve schemes are analyzed and compared using the unit combination model based on the improved Lagrange relaxation. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by test system.%研究了负荷预测偏差、风力发电预测偏差及机组停运等因素的概率特性,并将其引入到停运容量概率模型的计算中,从而得到风电接入后发电系统的可靠性指标.以可靠性指标为依据确定系统各个时段的上调旋转备用容量和下调备用容量,以保证当风力发电功率波动时系统有足够的上调备用保证用户不失负荷,同时有足够的下调备用保证不切风机.采用改进拉格朗日松弛法对机组组合模型进行求解以分析比较不同备用配置方案的可靠性.通过算例系统验证了本文所提方法的有效性和可行性.