基于动态安全域的电力系统安全概率评估模型

摘要

Considering the characteristics of power systems, a probability model for their security assessment based on dynamic security region (DSR) is presented. Insecurity probability indexes, the core of the proposed model, are used to represent security levels of elements and whole systems. The model not only involves uncertain factors, but also quantitatively describes system security. The theory of dynamic security region is applied to reduce the computing time and increase practicality. The research results of security probability assessment can be applied in decision making of security control. The effectiveness of the proposed model is proved by tests on the New England 10-genarator 39-bus system.%针对电力系统安全性问题特性,提出一种基于动态安全域的安全概率评估模型.模型核心是不安全概率指标,并通过该指标来表征各电力元件以及整个电力系统的安全性状况.概率方法的引入,使得模型不仅计及系统中各种主要的不确定性因素,而且对系统的安全状况进行了定量的描述.动态安全域理论大大降低了安全概率评估的计算量,使得该模型具有实用性.评估结果可以用于指导运行人员在安全控制中制定正确的决策.用新英格兰10机39节点系统( New England 10-generator 39-bus system)对该模型做了验证.