基于合作博弈的电力市场模式下售电商购电策略模型

摘要

伴随电力改革的进一步深化,售电侧市场得以逐渐放开,售电商的出现打破了原有输配售一体化的经营模式,售电商作为主要经济主体将在售电侧市场展开竞争.对电力交易差价合约进行了解释,根据差价合约理论对电力市场模式下发电商的发电价格和生产行为进行了分析;对差价合约下的售电商购电策略进行了探讨.采用情景分析法对售电商之间存在的联盟与非联盟2种情景进行了模拟分析,探讨了售电商合作情景形成联盟时,各售电商的利益变动情况;利用夏普利值法构建了售电商联盟合作利益均衡模型,对联盟内各售电商利益分配情况进行了分析.%With further deepening reform of electricity market,electricity retail side is gradually liberalized.Emergence of electricity retailers changesoriginal integrated business model.Electricity retailer will be the main economic entities whocompetes in electricity sale market.Power trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are explained in deatail.Generation price and production behavior are also analyzed under CFD theory.To discuss the purchase strategy of electricity retail under CFD model,scenario analysis is performed to simulateelectricity sale under bothcooperative and non-cooperative scenarios.The interests of electricity retailers are discussed under the case of alliance formation.A sale equilibrium model of cooperation profit among electricity supplier alliance is constructed by using Shapley value method.Additional studies are performed on profit allocation among different electricity supplier.